ATOR's Potential vs Helium
- By Hyp The Atornaut

Note: This is strictly our opinion, it does not constitute financial advice. 

NFA & DYOR.

ATOR's Potential vs Helium- By Hyp The Atornaut

Note: This is strictly our opinion, it does not constitute financial advice. NFA & DYOR.

Overview

Updated on the 22nd July 2023 ATOR @ 0.351 https://prnt.sc/6Zy0vxNtrRkj

We’ll do a side-by-side analysis of ATOR and Helium, as they’re both underpinned by network and infrastructure technologies.

Afterwards, we’ll take a peek at the global VPN market cap and forecast what’s in store for ATOR.

1. ATOR Market Capitalization and Circulating Supply

ATOR’s circulating token supply is approximately half of that of Helium.

  • Helium: 143,934,821 (143 million)
  • ATOR: 73,732,596 (73 million)

Helium hit its highest price on November 13, 2021, peaking at $55.22 USD. When we compare circulating supply and the all-time high, this implies that ATOR has the potential to climb to approximately $107.80 if we’re expecting the same market cap.

This is a quick and straightforward calculation you can conduct on your own. (Note: We’ve utilized the most recent supply number available on CoinMarketCap for Helium, not the figure from November 2021). 

There are additional factors to account for that could significantly drive this number higher.

2. ATOR Present Distributed Supply

ATOR already has 74% of its total token supply distributed, versus Helium which only has 65% distributed. It’s a known fact that the larger the number of tokens on the market, the greater the potential for sell pressure on the price.

ATOR has a substantially smaller amount of free/available tokens that could create sell pressure (around 40 million fewer). The sell pressure ATOR is currently under is mostly from early investors taking profits to balance their accounts, this can be seen reviewing the wallets on Etherscan, most purchased tokens 100 days ago.

Once these early investors have rebalanced their portfolios, we can expect ATOR’s price to resume its upward trajectory. 

3. ATOR Total Token Supply

ATOR’s total token supply is significantly less than Helium’s by a factor of 2.23x, or 123 million fewer tokens. Reflecting on Helium’s trajectory, its downfall was triggered by the mismatch between mining rewards and initial token distribution, which wasn’t balanced or tied to hardware sales. 

The network hit a saturation point where the sales and deployment of hardware couldn’t keep up with the selling pressure from mining rewards in the open market. This imbalance led to a persistent decrease in price, with Helium standing at $1.57 USD as of July 18, 2023. 

Furthermore, Helium’s network became overly saturated with nodes due to the lack of control in their deployment, leading to some areas having 70-100 nodes in a single building, and thus, the operation of a node became unprofitable. These issues could have been avoided had the Helium network founders taken preventive measures.

4. Speculation vs. Actual Real World Use

The LoRa / Lorawan Market

While considering ‘real-world application,’ Helium’s model was greatly speculative. Even though global communication carriers noticed the LORAWAN network, most didn’t fully commit due to the lack of wide necessity in 2021.

The VPN Market

In contrast, ATOR is constructed on the existing TOR network, a competitor to the VPN market. TOR is currently utilized to secure global networks and is gaining popularity. Potential mainstream investors could be VPN providers, concerned about ATOR encroaching on their market share, a situation they can’t control since TOR is free and its expansion is only constrained by network performance (speed).  As ATOR deploys nodes, network performance should significantly improve, making it a direct competitor to VPN operators.

Global Market Caps – Helium

In 2021, the Helium project rose to a market cap of 5 billion dollars. This is cause for concen as the entire global LORAWAN market cap reported by Global Market Insights was only 2 billion dollars in 2022. This project was oversold.

https://www.gminsights.com/industry-analysis/lorawan-market 

Global Market Caps – VPN

On the other hand, ATOR operates in the VPN sector, which had a global market cap of 44.6 billion in 2022, according to Statista. Predictions indicate this market expanding to 77.1 billion in 2026, only 2.5 years away. The substantial growth potential of the ATOR Protocol and the TOR network is evident. We have detailed a table showing the potential price impact of capturing part of the Global VPN Market cap.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/542817/worldwide-virtual-private-network-market/

We expect ATOR to capture $10 very quickly, timeline of Heliums growth below:

  • $ 4 – February 2021
  • $ 10 – March 2021
  • $ 18 – April 2021
  • $ 20 – May 2021
  • $ 26 – August 2021
  • $ 52 – November 2021

Keep in mind this was all speculation, no real world use.

5. Historical Bull Trends

Historical bull markets play a significant role in evaluating the potential peak of ATOR. Consider the price evolution of BTC:

  • in 2017, it reached $17K,
  • in 2021, it surged to $61K marking a 320-350% increase. 

If ATOR follows similar market trends, as many cryptocurrencies tend to, and the whole market shifts into a bull phase, we could expect this to exponentially propel ATOR’s price.

6. Hardware Sales

The growth of the ATOR Protocol will mirror that of Helium, with progress being fueled by the sale of hardware relays.

It’s noteworthy that ATOR hasn’t yet experienced the phase of hardware sales where both the reduced supply, as outlined in point 1, and the smaller distribution mentioned in point 2, could significantly bolster the token’s price, particularly if hardware purchases are made directly using the ATOR token.

This would drive up the demand for ATOR tokens, and with only 26 million tokens readily available on the blockchain, we can anticipate a significant surge in price.

7. Token Utility

When assessing the potential and utility of Helium’s HNT token compared to the ATOR token, it becomes clear that the ATOR project offers significantly greater feasibility and flexibility.

The HNT token was primarily limited to two uses:

  1. Hotspot Hosts and Operators: Although hotspot operators once received HNT as a reward, on the newly adopted Solana blockchain, they now earn network-specific tokens like IOT or MOBILE for deploying and maintaining network coverage. These tokens can then be exchanged for HNT.

  2. Enterprises and Developers: These users leveraged the Helium Network to connect devices and build IoT applications. Data Credits, utility tokens pegged to the USD and derived from HNT through burn transactions, were used to cover transaction fees for wireless data transmissions on the network.

Contrastingly, the ATOR token’s utility appears much broader. Despite being in the early stages, the ATOR team has laid out a comprehensive tokenomic roadmap that demonstrates the diverse ways the ATOR token will be used in transactions and operations:

  1. Sustainable Long-term Reward System: ATOR has established a reward system that periodically distributes tokens to users for their participation, ensuring long-term engagement. This mechanism aids in maintaining token circulation and reducing the risk of stagnation within the network.
  2. Staking: Staking refers to the process of locking up a certain amount of cryptocurrency to participate in the network’s operations. For ATOR, this could mean securing network integrity or participating in decision-making processes. In return, participants earn rewards, thereby creating a more stable and secure network.
  3. ATOR Relay/Hardware Purchases and User Onboarding: ATOR tokens can be used to purchase relay or hardware components, integral to the ATOR network’s infrastructure. This utilization might also extend to onboarding new users or entities, possibly by incentivizing them with ATOR tokens to join the network.
  4. DAO Transactions: A DAO, or Decentralized Autonomous Organization, is a type of organization represented by rules encoded as a computer program that is transparent, controlled by the organization members, and not influenced by a central government. ATOR tokens could be used to conduct transactions within such an organization, ensuring a decentralized and democratic approach to decision-making.
  5. Governance Transactions: Governance refers to the mechanism by which decisions are made within a blockchain network. ATOR tokens can be used in governance transactions, allowing token holders to vote on critical matters relating to the network’s future direction, thereby ensuring a sense of ownership and control among participants.
  6. Paid Services on Top of the TOR Network: ATOR plans to launch paid services on top of the existing TOR network, such as hosting and dedicated private TOR network access. Users would use ATOR tokens to access enhanced features, providing a value-added service while driving demand for the token.
  7. Compensation for Relay Operators and Hosts: Finally, ATOR tokens will be used to reward relay operators and hosts who help maintain and secure the network. This system helps ensure a reliable, efficient network by incentivizing those who contribute to its operation and security.

Given the multitude of uses for the ATOR token, it’s evident that the token usage will be considerably higher than that of Helium, indicating promising potential and a solid foundation for future growth.

8. Exchange Listings

Again if we compare HNT to ATOR, HNT managed to secure listings on numerous high-volume centralized exchanges such as Coinbase, Bitmart, OKX and previously Binance, which is the primary source of its trading volume. However, its recent delisting from Binance due to alleged failure to meet necessary standards has triggered a significant drop in its value. If HNT faces additional delistings, it may see its trading value plunge below $1.

As a direct comparison, ATOR has already achieved an impressive market capitalization, despite its ‘almost zero’ presence on centralized exchanges. This could be interpreted as a strong indicator of the heightened interest in ATOR, suggesting its value could potentially multiply by 10 to 100 times upon listing on a single major exchange.

Our estimated ATOR token price considering all 8 points above:
$100- $150
We anticpate TOR to take considerable global market share away from VPN providers. 

Given the shift to CBDC’s and surveillance state governments, this will drive public / consumer growth of the TOR network.